The government of Taiwan, an island that had never been part of Communist China, issued a formal statement saying that they would attack the military forces of any country that violated Taiwanese airspace or surrounding waters. Kai immediately understood the significance of this. For years Chinese jets had buzzed Taiwan, claiming they had the right because Taiwan was really in China, and in response the Taiwanese had repeatedly scrambled planes and deployed launchers – but had never actually attacked the intruders. Now, it seemed, that had changed. They would shoot down Chinese planes.
‘This is nuclear war,’ said General Huang. ‘And in a nuclear war it is better to strike first. We have land launchers, submarine launchers and long-range bomber aircraft, and we should deploy them all right from the start. If we allow the Americans to strike first, much of our nuclear ordnance will be destroyed before it can be used.’
Huang always spoke as if stating irrefutable facts, even when he was guessing, but in this case he was right. An American first strike would cripple China’s military.
Defence Minister Kong Zhao wore a despairing expression. ‘Even if we strike first, bear in mind that we have precisely three hundred and twenty nuclear warheads, and the Americans have something more than three thousand. Imagine that every one of our weapons destroyed one of theirs in a first strike. They would still have plenty and we would have nothing.’
‘Not necessarily,’ said Huang.
Kong Zhao lost his cool. ‘Don’t try to bullshit me!’ he shouted. ‘I’ve seen the motherfucking war games and so have you. We always lose. Always!’
‘War games are games,’ said Huang contemptuously. ‘War is war.’
Before Kong could reply, Chang Jianjun said: ‘May I suggest how we might fight a limited nuclear war?’
Kai had heard his father talk about this before. Kai himself did not have faith in limited war. History showed that it rarely stayed limited. However, he remained silent for the moment.
Jianjun said: ‘We should make a small number of early strikes on carefully selected US targets – no major cities, just military bases in thinly populated areas – then immediately offer a ceasefire.’
Kai said: ‘That might work, and it would certainly be better than all-out war. But isn’t there something else we can try first?’
President Chen said: ‘What did you have in mind?’
‘If we can restrict the fighting to non-nuclear weapons, we can defeat all these raids on our territory. We could even push the South Koreans out of North Korea, eventually.’
‘Perhaps,’ said the president. ‘But how would we stop the Americans resorting to nuclear weapons?’
‘By offering first an excuse, then a threat.’
‘Explain.’
‘We should tell President Green that the nuclear strike on Seoul was carried out by rogue elements in Korea who are right now being crushed and dispossessed of their nuclear weapons, and no further such atrocities will occur.’
‘But that might not be true.’
‘No. But we can hope. And the statement will buy us time.’
‘And the threat?’
‘An ultimatum to President Green. I suggest the wording: “A nuclear attack by the US on North Korea will be treated as a nuclear attack on China.” It’s similar to what President Kennedy said back in the Sixties. “It shall be the policy of this nation to regard any nuclear missile launched from Cuba against any nation in the Western Hemisphere as an attack by the Soviet Union on the United States, requiring a full retaliatory response upon the Soviet Union.” I think those were his exact words.’ Kai had once written a college essay on the Cuban Missile Crisis.
Chen nodded thoughtfully. ‘What it means is, if you nuke North Korea, you will be nuking us.’
‘Exactly, sir.’
‘It’s not that different from our present policy.’
‘But it makes it explicit. And it may get President Green to hesitate and think again. Meanwhile, we can search for ways to avoid nuclear war.’
‘I think this is a good idea,’ said President Chen. ‘If everyone is agreed, I’ll do it.’
General Huang and Chang Jianjun looked discontented, but no one spoke against the proposal, and it was agreed.
*
Pauline called on the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. ‘Bill, we have to take away General Pak’s ability to use nuclear bombs on our allies in South Korea – or anywhere the hell else. What are my options?’
‘I see only one, Madam President, and that is a nuclear attack on rebel territory in North Korea, destroying Yeongjeo-dong and every other military base that might have nuclear weapons.’