‘And how do we think Beijing would react to that?’
‘They might see sense,’ Bill said. ‘They don’t want the rebels to use those nukes.’
Gus was sceptical. ‘Alternatively, Bill, they could take the view that we have begun a nuclear war by attacking their closest ally, which obliges them to launch a nuclear attack on the US.’
Pauline said: ‘Let’s make sure we all know exactly what we’re talking about here. Luis, give us a rundown on the likely effects of a Chinese nuclear attack on the United States.’
‘Yes, ma’am.’ The Secretary of Defense had the information at his fingertips. ‘China has about sixty land-based nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles capable of reaching the US. These are use-it-or-lose-it weapons, likely to be destroyed early in a nuclear war, so they would launch them all immediately. In the Pentagon’s last major war game it was assumed that half the ICBMs would be aimed at the ten largest US cities and half at strategic targets such as military bases, ports, airports and telecommunications centres. We would see them coming and deploy anti-missile defences which might take out one in two, at an optimistic estimate.’
‘And how do you see American casualty numbers at this point?’
‘About twenty-five million, Madam President.’
‘Jesus Christ.’
Luis went on: ‘We would immediately launch most of our four hundred ICBMs, rapidly followed by more than a thousand warheads fired from aircraft and submarines. That would leave us with a similar number in reserve, but they would not be needed because by this time we would have disabled the Chinese government’s ability to continue the war. Surrender would follow quickly. In other words, Madam President, we win.’
We win, Pauline thought, with twenty-five million people killed or wounded, and our cities turned into wastelands. ‘God forbid we should ever have such a victory,’ she said with feeling.
One of the screens was showing CNN, and Pauline’s eye was caught by video of familiar Washington streets, still dark but jammed with traffic. ‘What’s going on outside?’ she said. ‘It’s four thirty in the morning – the streets should be almost deserted.’
Jacqueline Brody came up with the answer. ‘People are leaving town. There were some interviews, a few minutes ago, with drivers at stop lights. They think that if there’s a nuclear war, Washington is ground zero.’
‘Where are they going?’
‘They believe they’ll be safer away from cities – the Pennsylvania forests, the Blue Ridge Mountains. New Yorkers are doing something similar, driving to the Adirondacks. I guess Californians will head for Mexico as soon as they wake up.’
‘I’m surprised people even know about this yet.’
‘One of the TV stations sent a drone camera over Seoul. The whole world can see the devastation.’
Pauline turned to Chess. ‘What’s happening in North Korea?’
‘The South Koreans are attacking every rebel stronghold. President No is hitting them with everything she’s got.’
‘I’m not going to use nuclear weapons unless I have to. Let’s give President No the chance to do the job for us.’
Jacqueline Brody said: ‘Madam President, there’s a message from the Chinese president.’
‘Show me.’
‘On your screen now.’
Pauline read President Chen’s ultimatum aloud. ‘Any nuclear attack by the US on North Korea will be treated as a nuclear attack on China.’
Chess said: ‘Kennedy said something similar during the Cuban crisis.’
‘But does this change anything?’ said Pauline.
Luis Rivera said firmly: ‘Nothing at all. We would have assumed this was their policy, without the statement.’
‘There’s something else that might be more important,’ Pauline said. ‘They say that Seoul was nuked by rogue elements in North Korea who are right now being dispossessed of their nuclear weapons, and no further such atrocities will occur.’
Luis said: ‘Do they add “we hope” at the end?’
‘You’re not wrong, Luis, but I think we have to give this a chance. If the South Korean army can wipe out the rebel ultras, the problem will be solved without further nuclear attacks. We can’t dismiss that possibility just because we think it’s unlikely.’
She looked around the table. Some of them did not like it, but no one opposed her.
She said: ‘Bill, please instruct the Pentagon to prepare for a possible attack on the North Korean rebels. Target nuclear weapons on every military base in the rebel areas. This is a contingency plan, but we must be ready. We’ll hold our fire until we can see how the battle is moving on the ground.’